as displayed on the ABC website Australia Votes
People standing as Independent candidates have done very well in the recent federal election. While Labor attracted 34.7% of the national vote and the Coalition dropped to 32.3% of the vote, Independents collectively secured 13.1% of the national vote—a rise of 2.8% compared with 2022. On the left flank, the Greens had a small drop of 0.5% in their votes, to 11.7%, while on the right flank, One Nation rose by 1.3% to 6.3%.
While Labor has more than twice the number of seats in the lower house than the Coalition, and neither Greens nor One Nation now have any seats (nor the Trumpet of Patriots and the Libertarian parties, for that matter), Independents look set to hold at least 10 seats in the House of Representatives.
A number of Independent candidates have clearly been returned to their seat in the current election. Allegra Spender returns to Wentworth, former seat of John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, with an increase in primary votes of 7.7% from the 2022 result. Kate Chaney has also returned in Curtin, WA, where Julie Bishop had long been member; she has a 3.2% swing to her on primary votes. Both of these candidates come from long-established Liberal families; they have well exemplified the disenchantment, over a number of years, with the veer to the right that Abbott, Morrison, and Dutton engineered in the Liberal Party.
Other seats once considered safe Liberal seats are now in Independent hands. Dr Sophie Scamps returns to be the representative for Mackellar, NSW, where Bronwyn Bishop once held sway, with an estimated gain of 2.0% after the distribution of preferences. To her south, in Warringah, the old stamping ground of Tony Abbott, Zali Steggal has been returned for a third term, with 40.2% of the primary votes (an increase of 0.4%), substantially outpolling the Liberal candidate, who dropped 1.9% of the votes gained in 2022. Two more blue-ribbon Liberal seats where Independents are now ensconced!
at the start of the 2022 Parliament
The Queen of the Independents, Dr Helen Haines, who was elected to the seat of Indi after Cathy McGowan had served two terms (2013–2019) and has held the seat each time, was returned this election with a swing of 2.1% on the primary votes. Always returning a conservative member before this, long ago Indi was held by Isaac Isaacs (later a High Court Justice) and “Black Jack” McEwen (Country Party leader and briefly acting Prime Minister).
Alongside her, in the seat of Clark in Tasmania, Andrew Wilkie retains his seat with an increase of 3.8% in his primary votes. He has held the seat since 2010, when he was a surprise winner, coming from third in the primary vote to win the seat. He was only the sixth House candidate in seventy years to win an election from third position in the vote! This seat is named after Andrew Inglis Clark (1848-1907) a lawyer and politician who introduced proportional representation in Tasmania using the electoral system that has come to be known as Hare-Clark. If this excellent system was used in federal elections, we would have a very different configuration of members in the Federal Parliament!
Another candidate who could possibly move up from third place in the primary vote once preferences are distributed is the Independent candidate Kerryn Jones, in Fisher, Qld. Although she has only 16.5% of the primary vote, Labor has 22.2% and the front runner, the Liberal-National Party candidate, has 37.8% of the vote, which puts him in the “danger zone”. The ABC notes that the Independent candidate “could yet move into second place which will create an interesting final count” because of the low LNP primary vote. Interesting!
There’s a similar scenario in Grey, in SA, where first-time Independent candidate Anita Kuss has secured 18.4% of the primary vote. She is only4% below the votes for Labor, and the leading candidate, the Liberal, is also in the “danger zone” with 35.2% of the primary vote. The Independent would need a good proportion of the 24.3% of votes gained by the Greens and four rightwing minor parties.
Similarly, in Forrest, WA, Independent Sue Chapman has 18.4 of the primary vote, again only around 4% behind the Labor candidate, on 22.7%, and the Liberal candidate, who is very much in the “danger zone” on 31.7% of the primary vote. The 27.2% of the votes gained by the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, and three minor parties from the rightwing will be determinative. Accordingly, the ABC is calling this as a win for the Liberals.
In the seat of Bean in the southern part of Canberra, an Independent candidate with 26.9% of the vote is running close to unseating the Labor member, who suffered a swing of only 0.7% against him. We previously lived in this seat and know that David Smith is a very popular local member. The Liberals dived down 6.7% and the Greens 5.7%, so the Independent candidate, Jessie Price, has attracted votes from all directions—she is a good chance to win.
Alongside this, in the ACT as a whole, Independent David Pocock has decisively won a seat in the Senate, attaining a massive 18.59% increase in primary votes when compared with 2022. That gives him a primary vote of 39.8%, ahead of Labor on 31.6%, with 1.19 quotas on his primary vote alone. That’s a ringing endorsement!
In the seat of Calwell on the northwestern outskirts of Melbourne, three Independent candidates have run. They have secured 30.9% between the three of them, with Labor suffering a swing of 14.2% against it and the Liberals dropping by 8.1%. It is not yet clear who will emerge as the final winner in this seat, although the ABC is leaning towards Labor, with 30.9% of the primary vote, over the Liberal candidate, with 15.6% of the vote.
In Flinders in Melbourne, where the Liberal candidate scored 41.7%, there is a possibility that an Independent might take the seat. The Independent currently has 21.6% of the vote, just behind Labor on 22.2%. The ABC website says “Flinders remains in doubt as it is unclear who will finish second. A Labor second place win would deliver victory to Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie. But if Independent Ben Smith finishes second, he will attract a big majority of Labor and Green preferences. The AEC is currently trying to resolve who might finish second.”
In Kooyong, also in Melbourne, the sitting Independent candidate sits on 34.5%, a swing of 3.7% to her. The Liberal candidate drew a small swing of 0.6% but this may not be enough to enable her to take the seat from Independent Dr Monique Ryan. This seat is mighty close!
In Bradfield in northern Sydney, Independent Nicolette Boele has also almost made it over the line, with a swing to her of 4.6% taking her to 27.5% of the vote. With a possible preference flow from Labor, the Greens, and another Independent candidate, she may well just win this seat.
Dai Lee, a longterm Councillor and former Deputy Mayor of Fairfield Council has been returned in Fowler, NSW, with a 6.2% increase in primary votes, while Andrew Gee, a former Nationals MP for Calare, looks set to take the seat, with a massive 17.2% swing against his old party, the Nationals. A second Independent running in this seat obtained 15.8% of the votes, so together the Independents have 39.6% of the votes.
In Adelaide, Rebekah Sharkie of the Centre Alliance will retain the seat of Mayo, with a projected swing to her of 1.5% after distribution of preferences. And, of course, in far North Queensland, the maverick Bob Katter is returned in the seat of Leichhardt with 40.8% of the primary votes.
In the Melbourne seat of Goldstein, Tim Wilson has claimed victory, to regain the seat he lost in 2022. He has 44.2% of the primary votes, against 31.7% for Independent Zoe Daniel, who is currently tracking about 1500 votes behind Wilson after preferences are distributed.
In two rural seats, pundits were tipping wins by two strong community-supported Independents, but these did not materialise. In Wannon, in western Victoria, Alex Dyson ran for the third time against the Liberal incumbent. Although he increased his vote by 12.9%, preferences in this seat are set to deliver it to the Liberal incumbent. In Cowper, on the mid north coast of NSW, Caz Heise ran for the second time against the Nationals incumbent. She increased her vote by 3.5%, but also in this seat the preferences are pointing to a win for the Nationals incumbent.
Just to the south of Cowper, in Lyne, Jeremy Miller ran with the support of the community organisation, Independent Lyne. A primary vote of 15.84% was not enough to put him into second position, so the likely outcome will be that the new Nationals candidate will keep this as a Nationals seat. There is, however, a rather slim hope that he may receive enough preferences from the Greens (6.0% primary vote) and assorted minor party candidates in the seat (with 22.3% between them) to “catch” and then overtake the total number of votes (primary plus preferences) for the Labor candidate. There are just under 4,000 votes (not quite 4% of the votes cast) between the two candidates.
If the preferences distributed from all the minor party candidates largely avoid the Independent, he remains in third place, so his preferences would then be distributed amongst Labor and Nationals. Given the rightwing leanings of all but one of those minor parties, this seems most likely.
Or: if, perchance, the Independent candidate has attracted enough preference votes from those minor parties to put him ahead of Labor, then the preferences of the 20,000 plus votes for the Labor candidate will be distributed—and that could well push Jeremy Miller close to the 50% mark; although obviously he won’t reach that. Just how far short he falls, ultimately, is an interesting feature for those of us involved in the campaign to watch in the coming week.
Whatever the result, it is clear from this national overview that the movement to elect community-supported Independent members of parliament is strong. As Joshua Black of the Australia Institute notes, “Australia is a world leader in electing Independent MPs”. He points to the two elected to the first federal parliament—both from electorates in Queensland. Alexander Paterson was elected as an Independent Free Trade member, and James Wilkinson, elected as an Independent Labour member.
Black then notes that “between 1980 and 2004, 56 Independent MPs were elected to parliaments across Australia”. As well as those noted above, the list includes Ted Mack, Phil Cleary, Peter Andren, Pauline Hanson (for less than a year, before she formed her party), Bob Katter (still counted as an Independent although he also formed his own party), Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott, Kerryn Phelps, and Kylea Tink (whose seat was abolished ahead of this election). It’s a strong, enduring, and growing movement!
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An Informed Faith 